{"id":2771,"date":"2010-09-27T19:28:00","date_gmt":"2010-09-27T19:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/?p=2771"},"modified":"2010-09-27T19:28:00","modified_gmt":"2010-09-27T19:28:00","slug":"confidence_is_h","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/?p=2771","title":{"rendered":"Confidence Is High"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Polling of the gubernatorial race over the last week has supporters of all three major candidates gnashing their teeth. A Rasmussen poll had Democrats on edge when it showed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rasmussenreports.com\/public_content\/politics\/elections\/election_2010\/election_2010_governor_elections\/minnesota\/election_2010_minnesota_governor\">Republican Tom Emmer with a slight lead<\/a>. But over the weekend, a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.startribune.com\/politics\/state\/103798584.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3iUoaEaD_ec7PaP3iUiacyKUnciaec8O7EyUr\"><i>Star Tribune<\/i> poll showing Dayton with a nine-point lead<\/a> had Republicans crying foul. Independent candidate Horner also fares significantly better in the Strib poll, although he&#8217;s still well behind the other candidates. MinnPost has an excellent article up on the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.minnpost.com\/braublog\/2010\/09\/27\/21803\/minnesota_political_polling_whos_been_right_since_2006\">historical accuracy of the various polls<\/a>. In short, the Strib gets it right more often than not while Rasmussen&#8217;s track record is more dubious. But the statistic that gives me the most comfort comes from Nate Silver at the essential FiveThirtyEight blog: his modeling shows that <a href=\"http:\/\/elections.nytimes.com\/2010\/governor\/minnesota\">Dayton has a 78% chance of winning the election<\/a>. I am by no means certain of the result and I&#8217;ll still be obsessively clicking on my web browser&#8217;s Reload button on Election Night, but I&#8217;m starting to think that this race might be the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal evening. <\/p>\n<div class=\"zemanta-pixie\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"zemanta-pixie-img\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.zemanta.com\/pixy.gif?w=600\" \/><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polling of the gubernatorial race over the last week has supporters of all three major candidates gnashing their teeth. A Rasmussen poll had Democrats on edge when it showed Republican Tom Emmer with a slight lead. But over the weekend, a Star Tribune poll showing Dayton with a nine-point lead had Republicans crying foul. Independent <a href='https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/?p=2771' class='excerpt-more'>[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","category-1-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9Iwau-IH","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2771","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2771"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2771\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2771"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2771"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/the19thfloor.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2771"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}