Believe What You’re Seeing

Thanks to a meeting I had in downtown Minneapolis this morning, I was able to make a quick stop at the Government Center to vote early. So, for me, this election is now over.

I’ve been talking to friends with similar political views and many of them are still nervous about the outcome on November 4th. After getting burned in both 2000 and 2004, they can’t quite bring themselves to believe that the Democrats are on offense now. We certainly can’t afford to be cocky or complacent in this final week, but I don’t think I’m casting a jinx when I say that an Obama defeat is extremely unlikely. A friend of mine recently observed that the candidate who runs the better campaign usually wins. McCain’s first mistake was to abandon his carefully constructed image as a moderate to solidify his support among a shrill and forlorn base; a base already feeling neglected and betrayed by the current president. That fatal decision led to tactics that might have had currency in 1984, but don’t resonate in 2008.

McCain wanted so much for the social conservatives to love him, but he knew that he really wasn’t one of them. Which led him to Palin. Palin was supposed energize the evangelicals who were wary of McCain, but instead she only fanned the flames of discontent and fear. Sure, she attracted crowds. But under her spell, those crowds became mobs.

Meanwhile, Obama has run a campaign that is groundbreaking ($150 million in one month!) while being remarkably conservative in tone. Against all expectations, he maneuvered himself to be viewed as the safe, sensible choice. To put in pop culture terms, Obama is Atticus Finch to a lot of voters. Reassuring, calm, deliberate.

What I’m trying to say is this: Obama will probably win because the narrative of this race works strongly in his favor. And while I wouldn’t recommend swagger at this point, a little strut is certainly permissible.