Tomorrow’s off-year elections aren’t necessarily a good predictor for the 2010 cycle. A lot can happen in a year’s time. Multiple factors–the state of the economic recovery, unemployment, and other unforeseen events–will shape voters’ moods over the coming months. Nevertheless, Republicans are likely to make hay out of some likely victories tomorrow. They’re likely to pick up a governor’s seat in Virginia and possibly in New Jersey, but the race that has the political blogosphere chattering is in New York’s 23rd Congressional district. It’s a safely Republican district and it also serves as a kind of Fort Sumter in the long-brewing civil war between GOP moderates and conservatives.
In a shocker, the establishment Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out over the weekend when she realized that the third-party Conservative candidate would trounce her. This decision comes after the likes of Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck heavily criticized Scozzafava for being pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. If Hoffman does win, it will probably embolden other hard-right candidates to mount vigorous primary challenges in 2010 against anyone they perceive as ideologicaly impure.
As pure political theater, it might be fun to watch the extreme right engage in a closing hurrah of deluded self-congratulation. On the other hand, the Republicans must eventually evolve into a modern political party that can build coalitions and address present-day concerns. They should be emulating the Tories in the U.K., but instead they are following Beck, Limbaugh, and their ilk over a cliff.
