A week ago, I wrote that I was “reasonably confident” that Coakley would win in today’s Massachusetts special election for Kennedy’s former seat. Tonight, I’m steeling myself for a Republican loss. Nate Silver, the master of election statistical analysis, pegs Republican Brown as the 3:1 favorite. Coakley ran a terrible campaign, but voters are also really, really angry. They’re angry about unemployment, the bailouts, health care reform, and the bewildering structural changes that the economy is currently experiencing. It’s an inarticulate anger; they don’t like the changes Democrats are proposing, but they don’t have a clear idea on what the alternative strategies should be.
How Democrats should respond to this anger is a topic for serious debate, but I’m convinced of one thing: health care reform should not be scuttled because of this election. The House can still pass the Senate bill as-is, eliminating the need for another Senate vote. Further negotiations would have made the bill better, but many of those improvements could be accomplished through a reconciliation bill. The politics of such a move will be messy, but the process has come too far and too many lives are at stake. Walking away is simply not an option.
Assuming Democrats don’t lose their nerve, they can still do some tremendous good. They should seize the moment while they can because, once they lose their supermajority, we can forget about any major legislation passing in the foreseeable future.
