Polling released today indicates that a Republican takeover of the House is an increasingly likely scenario. The underlying factors influencing the electorate aren’t difficult to understand: the economy is terrible and Republicans are more motivated to vote by an order of magnitude. Governance is never easy and bad times invite a backlash like the one we’re seeing. If the Democrats do lose the House, plenty of Monday morning quarterbacking will keep the bloggers and pundits busy until Christmas. But I’m not sure anything could have been done differently, or at least not in a way that would have made a significant difference. A bigger stimulus might have helped, although this quasi-recession seems to have a stubborn inertia that has overwhelmed the political will of our leaders.
So what could the next two years bring? A whole lot of nothing, at least from a legislative perspective. The House will pass its share of Tea Party manifestos disguised as proper bills, most of which will die in the Senate or on the President’s desk. Republicans will become even more gleeful deficit haawks, bolstered by the knowledge that they won’t have to make any politically tough cuts as long as a Democrat is in the While House. Any improvements on the employment front will be in spite of rather than because of Congressional action. For progressives like me, it could be a tedious and exasperating couple of years. But I also have every confidence that Republicans will not hesitate to unleash their inner batshit-crazy uncle/aunt at every opportunity, giving us amnesiac Americans ample reminder of why we voted them out not so long ago.
