Polling of the gubernatorial race over the last week has supporters of all three major candidates gnashing their teeth. A Rasmussen poll had Democrats on edge when it showed Republican Tom Emmer with a slight lead. But over the weekend, a Star Tribune poll showing Dayton with a nine-point lead had Republicans crying foul. Independent candidate Horner also fares significantly better in the Strib poll, although he’s still well behind the other candidates. MinnPost has an excellent article up on the historical accuracy of the various polls. In short, the Strib gets it right more often than not while Rasmussen’s track record is more dubious. But the statistic that gives me the most comfort comes from Nate Silver at the essential FiveThirtyEight blog: his modeling shows that Dayton has a 78% chance of winning the election. I am by no means certain of the result and I’ll still be obsessively clicking on my web browser’s Reload button on Election Night, but I’m starting to think that this race might be the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal evening.
