My predictions for tomorrow’s elections are based on little more than gut feeling and a cursory review of FiveThirtyEight, but here they are nonetheless:
Minnesota Governor: Dayton by 3%. I don’t think Dayton’s lead is as big as some polls indicate, but his campaign’s unapologetic “tax the rich” message (combined with his name recognition) should be enough to carry the day. It may be the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal evening.
Minnesota House and Senate: These races don’t get much attention and are difficult to predict, but the DFL has substantial majorities in both houses. That seems likely to continue, although those majorities will probably shrink by a few seats.
U.S. House: No surprises in the Minnesota races. The Republicans will win the House, but fall short of capturing 50 seats. Let’s say +46, which is still plenty. John Boehner is probably already shopping for a tanning bed that will fit in his new digs.
U.S. Senate: The Democrats will build a firewall around California, Washington, West Virginia, and (because I’m feeling lucky) Colorado. All the other major contested races will be Republican wins. At least Sharron Angle will be good for a few laughs.
After tomorrow night, the afterglow of the 2006 and 2008 elections will seem like distant memories. But it also won’t be the end of the world. The road to the future is a rocky one and we will travel it in fits and starts. While Republicans will spend the next two years making currency of fear and greed, I’m confident that better days await.
