Pity the poor Supreme Court law clerks who will have to absorb and summarize for their bosses the avalanche of briefs (from the litigants as well as a host of amici) that is sure to come now that the Court has agreed to hear a challenge to the Affordable Care Act. Of course, they will also have a front-row seat to one of the most significant legal battles to visit the Court in at least a decade, so any pity should be tempered with envy. And with the Court allotting five and a half hours for oral argument, NPR might as well plan on letting Nina Tottenberg host the entire day’s programming.
Over the next six months, law professors will be shoving themselves in front of any available camera to share their unique insight into how the Court will ultimately rule. My advice: treat it all like so much dinner party chatter. Nobody can say with any certainty whether the Court will rule one way or the other or by how wide of a margin. It’s all guesswork and opinion. Whatever the outcome, it will likely contain at least one surprise. But I’m relatively certain of one thing: the Court won’t strike down the law in total. Even if the insurance mandate is struck down, states will still be required to set up Exchanges and insures will still be prohibited from discriminating on the basis of health status. A Court ruling might not settle the issue so much as reframe it just in time for the 2012 election.
Missed you the past couple of days — are you ok?