NPR ran an excellent story yesterday about kids with severe disabilities who may be forced into institutions when they turn 21. The story profiles a young Illinois woman who is ventilator-dependent who recently turned 21 and is now facing the possibility of losing her nursing care. Like many other states, Illinois’ Medicaid program doesn’t cover in-home services for kids with severe disabilities after they turn 21. Some of you may recall that Nick Dupree, a disability rights activist, faced a similar threat a few years ago in his home state of Alabama. Nick successfully lobbied the Alabama legislature to change its Medicaid laws. But Illinois, which has a $15 billiion deficit on its ledger, is reluctant to do the same. The family is currently suing the state in federal court under the Americans with Disabilities Act.

A related story profiles Katie Beckett, a pioneer of sorts in the home care movement. In the early 80s, Beckett was a little girl living in a hospital because of a severe brain infection. She couldn’t go home because Medicaid refused to pay for services in the home. Her story caught the attention of President Reagan, who signed a law creating a Medicaid waiver program that would pay for home and community-based services for kids like Beckett. Beckett is now in her early thirties and living independently in Iowa. This story is particularly fascinating to me because a “Katie Beckett” program in Wisconsin enabled me to stay at home after I became vent-dependent.

The main article points out that Medicaid policymakers didn’t anticipate that kids with such severe disabilities would reach adulthood. To punish them with institutionalization for simply outliving antiquated actuarial expectations is deeply cruel and an absurd policy. States are justified in claiming that a tough economy is tying their hands, but the current Medicaid financing model is fundamentally flawed. Even larger states don’t have the tax base needed to pay for long-term  for an aging population and people with disabilities. The federal government could pick up a greater share of these costs, but the rightward lurch of Congress makes that scenario…unlikely. For now, people with disabilities and their families will have to fight these lonely fights themselves. There’s always hope that the economy will recover and states will be more flush with cash, but that’s little comfort to anyone who is being forced from their home and into a prison.

All the pre- and post-election Sturm und Drang, along with a hectic workweek, was enough to make me temporarily forget that I still haven’t watched the first episode of The Walking Dead. That situation must be remedied. Off I go. See you on the other side of the weekend.

My election projections left a lot to be desired. I lowballed the number of seats that Republicans would take in both the U.S. House and the Minnesota Legislature by a lot. But I can take some comfort in the fact that the takeover of the Legislature also shocked the professional pundits. It should make for an interesting legislative session. It will be doubly interesting because our next governor may not be sworn in until the session is nearly over, depending on the length of the recount process. Pawlenty has already offered to stay on as governor until the matter of his succession has been resolved. That assurance was enough to make state Republicans swoon with adoration.

My predictions for tomorrow’s elections are based on little more than gut feeling and a cursory review of FiveThirtyEight, but here they are nonetheless:

Minnesota Governor: Dayton by 3%. I don’t think Dayton’s lead is as big as some polls indicate, but his campaign’s unapologetic “tax the rich” message (combined with his name recognition) should be enough to carry the day. It may be the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal evening.

Minnesota House and Senate: These races don’t get much attention and are difficult to predict, but the DFL has substantial majorities in both houses. That seems likely to continue, although those majorities will probably shrink by a few seats.

U.S. House: No surprises in the Minnesota races. The Republicans will win the House, but fall short of capturing 50 seats. Let’s say +46, which is still plenty. John Boehner is probably already shopping for a tanning bed that will fit in his new digs.

U.S. Senate: The Democrats will build a firewall around California, Washington, West Virginia, and (because I’m feeling lucky) Colorado. All the other major contested races will be Republican wins. At least Sharron Angle will be good for a few laughs.

After tomorrow night, the afterglow of the 2006 and 2008 elections will seem like distant memories. But it also won’t be the end of the world. The road to the future is a rocky one and we will travel it in fits and starts. While Republicans will spend the next two years making currency of fear and greed, I’m confident that better days await.

James Cameron finally dug his way out of the mountain of cash he accumulated from Avatar‘s box office receipts to announce that he will be directing two sequels to Avatar, which will debut in 2014 and 2015. In the first sequel, human resistance fighters time-travel back from a future Pandora that has been colonized by an aggressive race of xenomorphs who possess acid for blood. The Na’Vi and the human join forces to battle the invading alien horde. In the second sequel, Pandora becomes self-aware and amasses an army of killer robots to wipe out the Na’Vi and humans. Critics will praise the sequels’ bold, original vision.